Survey of Greater Manchester businesses reveals slowdown in exports and manufacturing

The latest results of Greater Manchester Chamber of Commerce’s quarterly survey of the city-region’s businesses has revealed a slowing down of the economy.

The Quarterly Economic Survey’s Greater Manchester Index fell from 30.6 in the last survey to 18.3 for the last three months. The figures contrast sharply with the previous survey which showed optimism returning as businesses looked forward to a new direction with the election of a new government. This time the survey was carried out in the uncertain period between Labour coming to power and the first Budget of the new Chancellor on 30th October.

Subrahmaniam Krishnan-Harihara, Deputy Director of Research at Greater Manchester Chamber, said the survey results reflected a combination of “doom and gloom” government announcements and wider economic factors, such as low consumer confidence and poor economic performance of major international trading partners, such as Germany.

The survey results revealed a sharp downturn in both international trade and manufacturing since the last survey was conducted in the second quarter of this year. The manufacturing downturn was being particularly felt by businesses in the North of the city-region where this sector is dominant, but was also affected logistics and other services provided to the industry that dominate the South of Greater Manchester.

Among the positives to come out the survey results were the findings that both services and construction saw an improvement in domestic orders in the previous quarter, alongside a growth in service sector exports and a rise in retail sales.

Looking to the future, Subrahmaniam said a major barrier to economic growth was the UK’s lack of public and private investment compared with other countries. He explained:

“We need significant public investment to encourage private investment. We need to invest in long-term projects. Our competitors are going to grow because they are getting the investment. We need the equivalent of the post-war Marshall Plan in the UK, but I think what we will actually get is austerity by stealth.”

The results of the Quarterly Economic Survey were revealed at the Chamber’s Economic Review held at Elliot House on 26^th September. The QES is part of the UK’s largest business performance and sentiment survey.