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The most recent Quarterly Economic Survey (QES) conducted by Greater Manchester Chamber of Commerce (GMCC) has revealed growing confidence among the city-region’s businesses since the start of 2024.
While the previous survey for Q1 2024 showed a sharp decline in economic performance, the latest survey paints a more optimistic picture with increased sales and growth reflected in both business and consumer confidence. GMCC’s Greater Manchester Index, bringing together a number of factors reported in the survey, is now at 30.6, up 27 points on the previous quarter.
Subrahmaniam Krishnan-Harihara, Deputy Director of Research at GMCC, said:
“The first quarter of this year was not a great quarter. In fact, it was the worst for quite some time. This quarter, however, shows consumer confidence is returning and a lot of growth took place since March. We’ve seen a growth in services, and manufacturing and construction are at their highest levels for months.”
Despite the improving overall picture, regional breakdowns highlighted differences between areas of the city-region, with businesses in Northern parts of Greater Manchester faring better than those in the city centre and South. Subrahmaniam explained:
“The reason for this is the sectoral make-up of the different parts of Greater Manchester. There is more manufacturing in the North and there has been a significant increase in manufacturing. Hospitality and retail have been doing less well and they are concentrated in the city centre and the South of Greater Manchester is more focused on logistics and is home to the airport.”
Across the city-region, however, inflation remained a key concern for businesses. Although the proportion of businesses worried about inflation has gone down relative to 2023, wage inflation remains a particular concern. Concerns around exports and the UK’s trading relationship with the EU also remained at the fore among firms surveyed, despite them reporting boost in international sales across both services and manufacturing. Subrahmaniam added:
“We export more to the EU than the rest of the world – 46% of our exports go to the EU and nearly 60% of our imports come from the EU too. Trade with the EU has to be a priority of the new government. Recent Free Trade Agreements don’t add a lot as the trade with many of these countries is so small. Yet trade with EU was barely mentioned during the election campaign.