MAG Trade Barometer reveals decline in UK firms’ confidence in global trade

Global trade confidence is at its lowest level in 12 months, according to the latest findings of Manchester Airport Group’s (MAG) latest UK Trade Barometer survey.

Only one in four exporters are expecting to grow sales this quarter, the survey, conducted by YouGov for MAG and the Growing Together Alliance of business groups. Just more than half of globally-trading firms (51%) said they increased exports in Q1 2026 – down 12 percentage points on the same period last year.  Only 34% broke into a new market for the first time in the first three months of the year – down 13 points on Q1 2025.

The findings of the UK Trade Barometer lay bare the impact of geopolitical issues on export patterns and indicate the Government needs to pull all available levers to kick-start growth in the wider economy. The survey of 2,000 business – representative of all UK regions and industries – asks exporters about their global trade performance in the last three months and expectations for the quarter ahead.

The latest findings – covering January-March – show the United States remains the biggest single market for UK exporters, with 24% saying they grew sales there in the last quarter, down from 29% a year ago. All sectors of the economy saw fewer businesses reporting increased export sales than did a year ago. Only the financial services sector is more confident about growing future overseas sales in Q2 than it was 12 months ago – 32% expect to increase exports this quarter, seven percentage points up on 2025.

Manufacturers are only marginally less confident than a year ago, with 52% saying they had grown sales in Q1- three percentage points down on Q1 2025. Crucially, manufacturers appear to have adapted well to the US tariff regime. In Q1 2026, 20% of manufacturing exporters said they grew sales across the pond – the highest level since Q1 2025 and up from a low of 13% in the previous three months.

 Ken O’Toole, CEO of MAG – which operates Manchester, London Stansted and East Midlands Airports – said:

“On the one hand, it is positive to see more than half of all businesses saying they increased global sales in the first quarter of the year – that reinforces what we know about the resilience and adaptability of exporters.

 “But the significant year-on-year fall in the number of firms reporting overseas sales growth – coupled with the lowest trade confidence we’ve seen for 12 months – cannot be ignored. Being a services-led, island economy is one of our economic strengths but these figures also show how vulnerable we are to geopolitical shocks.

 “That is why we need to pull all levers at our disposal to kick-start growth. That includes creating a stable and predictable business climate – including predictable, proportionate business rates – that encourages private investment and attracts capital to our shores. 

 “Encouraging investment directly creates economic activity, which is crucial when other parts of the economy may be facing challenges. It builds confidence, creates jobs and delivers the infrastructure globally-focussed businesses need to navigate issues that may be beyond our control when it comes to international trade.”

The Growing Together Alliance brings together business groups from across the UK regions, including the Northern Powerhouse Partnership. Cambridge Ahead and BusinessLDN, among others. The partnership’s Chair Henri Murison said:

“There is a year-on-year fall in both trade and confidence about the prospects for growth of it across the country, which goes to show the cumulative impact global issues like tariffs and conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine can have. We should all be concerned.

“The Chancellor is rightly focused on growth. I know she believes it cannot be London or the North, the North or the Oxford–Cambridge Corridor or any region at the expense of another. We need the whole country firing on all its cylinders and that means government using every lever available to empower the places with the greatest potential to make a greater contribution.”