The latest summary of economic data for Greater Manchester (GM), including Stockport, offer signs of encouragement that things are slowly starting to improve, with falling unemployment, increasing vacancy numbers, and higher levels of business activity.
This month’s Monitor takes a look at the statistics in more detail in order – the full report can be downloaded here in pdf format
Employment
The number of people claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance (JSA) in GM has fallen for the sixth month in a row.
The latest figures show there were 76,700 JSA claimants in GM in August 2013 – a decline of 2,000 (2.6%) compared to July 2013.
In further positive news, the number of youth (16–24) JSA claimants in GM was recorded at 20,300 as of August 2013 – 18.2% (4,500) lower than this time last year. Long-term claimants (6 months +) are also falling, down to 36,700 in August, an annual decline of 18.2% (4,500).
In a new dataset this month for the Manchester Monitor, information on vacancies in GM is now available via Labour Insight – an online database of job postings (including those at Jobcentre Plus) across England. The database shows that there were 21,200 job openings in GM in August 2013, up by almost a quarter (4,200) on the same month last year. The highest proportion of vacancies were in professional occupations (27.1%, or 5,700), followed by associate professional & technical roles (21.3%, 4,500).
Increase in business activity
The findings from the latest English Business Survey from the Department for Business Innovation and Skills (BIS) show that almost half of GM businesses reported higher levels of activity in the second quarter of the year compared to the first three months of 2013. In addition, 39% of firms in GM were expecting activity to increase in Q3.
Manchester Airport – Passenger numbers increase
Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) data on airport passenger numbers highlight that Manchester Airport continues to see year-on-year increases in passengers. It handled 2.3 million passengers in July 2013, 94,000 higher (4.3%) than 12 months previously.
Property Market
Analysis on the commercial property market by Cushman & Wakefield (C&W) shows that prime rents for office space in Manchester city centre remained at £30 per sq. ft for the three months to June 2013, and C&W note that the regional UK office market is starting to build some momentum, helped by improving business sentiment and stronger economic indicators.
Residential Property
The Greater Manchester housing market continues to show few signs of any movement in terms of price increases, with Land Registry data showing that the average cost of a house in the conurbation fell by 1.9% (£2,000) between August 2012 and 2013. A typical property now costs just over £102,000. In contrast property prices in England & Wales grew by 1.3% (£2,100) between August 2012 and 2013 – the largest annual rise since November 2010 – and the average house price nationally now stands at almost £165,000.
Rental data show that there were around 5,400 houses for rent in GM via estate agents in June 2013, up by nearly 1,200 (27.3%) on the same time last year. An average 3-bed house costs around £660 per calendar month to rent. There were also around 5,700 apartments for rent in GM during June (up by 14.4% or 720 annually), with a typical 2-bed property costing £650 per calendar month. Rental levels for both houses and apartments in GM remained fairly constant on a quarterly and annual basis.
Falling Crime figures
This edition of the Manchester Monitor Quarterly includes a detailed feature on falling crime numbers in GM. In Autumn 2009, the statistics showed that there were in excess of 20,000 victims of crime per month on average. Four years later, this figure has reduced by approximately a quarter and the feature takes a look at the statistics in more detail in order to understand which crime types have fallen. The detailed analysis of crime data shows that reductions in criminal damage and arson, and in the burglary, other theft, and vehicle offences sub-categories of ‘theft’ are largely responsible for the overall fall in crime figures. In particular, theft offences in GM declined by 26,000 from 2009 to 2013. While crime has fallen over the last four years, the number of incidents reported to GMP has remained relatively consistent. Across the period, numbers of recorded incidents fell by only 2%. The reason for the relatively small decline (compared to the 26% drop in crime volumes) lies in the rise in the number of calls to the police relating to public safety and welfare issues (including domestic incidents), as well as requests for information.
Source – New Economy – Manchester Monitor